The dim future of oil will also have a major geopolitical impact: the economies that depend mostly on oil will be hit badly.
In five years, you could be buying petrol at less than Rs 30 a litre. Emerging technology is going to reduce the world's dependence on petrol so much that prices will plummet. That's the prediction by Tony Seba, an American futurist who is famous for predicting a boom in solar power when the prices used to be forbiddingly high, 10 times the prices today.
Seba is a serial Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and an instructor in Entrepreneurship, Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford’s Continuing Studies Program.
Seba's prediction on solar energy came true, but will he be right about the future of oil too? It seems highly likely if you look at what prompts Seba.
According to Seba, the rise of self-drive cars would bring down oil demand sharply which could reduce the price of oil to $25 a barrel. "Oil demand will peak 2021-2020 and will go down 100 million barrels, to 70 million barrels within 10 years. And what that means, the new equilibrium price is going to be $25," Seba said while speaking to CNBC.
Seba says people would not stop using the old-style cars but the self-drive electric vehicles will become a much larger part of the sharing economy. These electric vehicles will be cheaper to buy as well as run.
Seba had earlier said that by 2030, 95% of people won’t own private cars which would wipe off the automobile industry. He also predicted that electric vehicles would destroy the global oil industry.
Recently, Union power minister Piyush Goyal said India was looking to have all-electric car fleet by 2030. He meant not a single petrol or diesel car would be sold in the country after 15 years.
If you look at rapid advances in technology and business, you will find Seba convincing. No one doubts that soon electric cars will become a mass trend. Add to this the innovation in travel business such as Uber and rideshare apps. The future these two trends indicate looks like this: most people will prefer shared electric vehicles to owning cars while most of those still buying cars would go for electric ones.
"Imagine a Starbucks on wheels. Essentially transportation is going to be so cheap, it's going to be essentially cheaper for Starbucks to run around and take me to work, which is, you know, 60 kilometers away, and give that transportation for free, in exchange for going to buy coffee in that hour of commute," Seba said while speaking to CNBC.
The dim future of oil will also have a major geopolitical impact: the economies that depend mostly on oil will be hit badly. Many Arab countries will lose much of their influence and power.
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